27년까지 美상업용건물 대출 3천조원 만기…'디폴트 급증 우려' :: 잡뉴스메이커 JOBNEWSMAKER-공공,일반기업의 경력직 채용 및 전직(이직)자 꿈과 미래직업에 대한 희망과 비전을 제시-(주)솔로몬서치

27년까지 美상업용건물 대출 3천조원 만기…"디폴트 급증 우려": 피치, 상업용 부동산 대출 연체율 올해 4.5%, 2025년 4.9% 예측; 2024.01.17 16:20 입력

이봉석 기자 anfour@yna.co.kr

<div class="tit-sub" style='margin: 0px 0px 51px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 14px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.16px; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; display: block; white-space: normal; position: relative; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'><h2 class="tit" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.1; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: inherit; font-size: 17px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit;">피치, 상업용 부동산 대출 연체율 올해 4.5%, 2025년 4.9% 예측</h2></div><div class="comp-box photo-group" style='margin: 0px auto; padding: 0px 0px 50px; width: 648px; height: 355px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.16px; clear: both; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; display: block; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'><figure class="image-zone" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 400; display: block; position: relative; font-stretch: inherit;" data-mapping-filename="AKR20240117122500009_01_i_P2.jpg" data-stat-code="mapping_photo"><div class="img-con" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 648px; text-align: center; line-height: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 400; display: block; position: relative; font-stretch: inherit;"><span class="img" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.01em; overflow: hidden; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 400; vertical-align: top; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit;"><img style="border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-weight: 400; vertical-align: top; display: inline-block; max-height: 500px; max-width: 648px;" alt="미국 뉴욕의 사무용 건물들" src="https://img3.yna.co.kr/etc/inner/KR/2024/01/17/AKR20240117122500009_01_i_P4.jpg"></div><figcaption class="desc-con" style="margin: 14px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 22px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: inherit; font-size: 14px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 400; display: block; position: relative; font-stretch: inherit;"><strong class="tit-cap" style="margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.5px; font-family: inherit; font-size: 15px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 500; vertical-align: top; display: inline-block; font-stretch: inherit;">미국 뉴욕의 사무용 건물들<p class="txt-desc" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.5px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: 300; font-stretch: inherit;">[AP 연합뉴스 자료사진]</figcaption></figure></div><p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>(서울=연합뉴스) 이봉석 기자 = 2027년 말까지 만기가 돌아오는 3천조원에 육박하는 미국 상업용부동산 대출 중 상당 규모가 고금리 차환 압박에 직면해 채무불이행(디폴트) 급증 우려가 나온다고 월스트리트저널(WSJ)이 16일(현지시간) 보도했다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>부동산정보 제공업체 트렙에 따르면 지난해 만기를 맞은 오피스빌딩과 호텔 등 상업용 부동산 대출액은 역대 최대인 5천410억달러에 달했다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>만기 대출금은 계속 증가해 현재부터 2027년 말까지 2조2천억달러(약 2천960조원)를 넘어설 것으로 추산된다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>재작년과 지난해 많은 상업용 부동산 소유자들은 대출을 1~2년 연장했다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>많은 대출자가 높은 공실률과 나빠진 현금 흐름 속에 고금리 충격을 맞닥뜨리게 된다는 얘기다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>이는 부동산 가치 하락이라는 악순환을 낳는다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>일부 소유주와 채권자들은 이미 신종 코로나바이러스 감염증(코로나19) 사태 초기의 대출 만료로 어려움을 겪고 있다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>원리금을 이자와 함께 갚아가는 주택담보대출과 달리 대부분 상업용 부동산 대출은 이자만 갚는 방식이다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>이에 따라 대출 만기 때 차환하거나 원리금을 갚아야 한다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>하지만 재택근무 확산에 따라 공실률이 높아져 소유주들이 임대료를 올리거나 변동금리의 부채를 갚는 데 애를 먹고 있다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>상업용 부동산 대출에 대한 금융권의 손실은 증가하기 시작했고 앞으로도 더 늘어날 것으로 보인다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>신용평가사 피치는 유가증권으로 전환된 상업용 부동산 대출의 연체율을 2024년 4.5%, 2025년 4.9%로 예측했다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>이렇게 되면 작년 11월 2.25%의 두 배 이상이 된다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>미 금융 당국은 상업용 부동산 손실이 한층 광범위한 금융 시스템으로 확산할까 우려하고 있다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>2008년 금융 위기 이후 신설된 미 금융안정감독위원회(FSOC)는 작년 보고서에서 "재정적으로 부실한 부동산의 매각은 가치 평가의 폭넓은 하락세로 이어질 수 있으며, 지방자치단체의 세수도 줄일 수 있다"고 경고했다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>FSOC는 그러면서 금융기관들이 상업용 부동산에 대한 노출액을 자세하게 파악할 것을 권고했다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>자체 포트폴리오뿐 아니라 다른 부동산 채권자들에게 빌려준 돈까지 조사해야 한다는 것이다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>올해 만기가 되는 대출 가운데 500억달러 이상이 사모펀드 회사의 펀드들과 모기지 부동산 투자신탁 등 비(非)은행권이 일으킨 것이다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>많은 대출자가 대출 만기가 되면 현재 대출기관과 거래를 해야겠지만, 낙관하는 대출자와 달리 대출기관은 최악의 시나리오까지 상정하곤 한다는 것이 문제다.<p style='margin: 0px 0px 16px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); text-transform: none; line-height: 1.7; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: -0.01em; font-family: "Spoqa Han Sans Neo", "Malgun Gothic", "맑은 고딕", Gulim, 굴림, AppleSDGothicNeo-Regular, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;'>결국 현실과 마주한 대출자들이 한층 높아진 금리로 차환하게 되면서 채무불이행(디폴트) 급증 전망은 높아질 것으로 보인다.       | 저작권자 ⓒ  연합뉴스(<a href="http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr">http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr</a>) | 무단전재 및 재배포금지 |

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